Banque mondial
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Global Economic Prospects January 2011
Global Economic Prospects January 2011: Navigating strong currentsOverview & main messages
Economic activity in most developing countries has, or is close to having, recovered. Supported by a resurgence in international and domestic financial flows and higher commodity prices, most of the spare capacity in developing countries that was created by the crisis has been reabsorbed, and developing countries have regained trend growth rates close to those observedin the pre-crisis period. In contrast, the recovery in many highincome countries (and several economies in developing Europe and Central Asia) has not been strong enough to make major inroads into high unemployment and spare capacity. Prospects in these economies, many of which were at the center of the financial boom and bust, continue to be weighed down by bankingsector restructuring, highconsumer debt and a right-sizing of economic sectors that grew unsustainably large during the boom period. The robust recovery in developing countries is all the more remarkable because it mainly reflects an expansion of their internal markets. Developing countries are not just leading the recovery. Increasingly they are an important source of stability, with many of the risks to global growth centeredin high-income countries and reflecting as yet unresolved imbalances generated by the boom period. Very low policy-induced interest rates in high -income countries plus better growth prospects in developing countries prompted a strong recovery in capital flows, mainly to middle-income countries. Overall net private capital flows to developing countries expanded 44 percent in 2010, but remain…